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guns and doctors *urgent*
AnnnBrush said:
Right, I am off to the doctor, wish me luck 
I hope you made it. I am always somewhat entertained by arguments based on "statistics", especially when a serious point is supposed to be supported by them. I think Ann would agree (She nearly said it.) that we often use statistics to account for the probability of an event whose cause is so complex or poorly understood that we can't predict the event with our knowledge of the cause.
For example, flipping a coin is a common example of a statistically even chance of heads or tails coming up. If we fully understood and controlled its launch in all details and understood local air currects, density, and other influences on its tumbling, I suspect it would be possible to create scenarios where heads came up much more often than tails. A simple example is to lift one edge until it falls over without its other edge leaving the lauch base (much reduced complexity). With such controls in place, predicting the outcome is no longer a statistical problem. Most problems suffer that fate when they are fully understood. While I really enjoyed the Dr/gun accident comments, we are already at risk whem we see a doctor for an ailment serious enough to require risky action. A healthy individual is probably not at risk due to a doctor's action, unless the doctor performs a hit and run on the way to the hospital.
In most cases, statistical evedence I read about supports my observation that there are lies, damned lies, and statistics, and for the reasons Ann presented. Statistics are great when it comes to drawing conclusions from a data sample that contains no bias. Too often the known bias is ignored because it adversely affects somebody's agenda.
My gun is at the gunsmith getting a trigger job and my Dr doesn't work on holidays. I must be quite safe.
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guns and doctors *urgent*
Statistics are like lampposts.
Honest people use them for illumination. Drunks use them for support.
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guns and doctors *urgent*
NCrunch, I had meant to reply but had to go on vacation (too many data). Have always enjoyed the SUGI meetings, always learn something worthwile, last year a bit of SAS code I picked up saved me DAYS of work time, so the meeting more than paid for itself. I too am glad there are other statisticians who love tractors, although if you consider the total population of statisticians its possible that some of them own tractors and then etc etc.
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How do you determine Shotgun S
08-30-2017, 05:24 
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